2024 State Waterfowl Survey Results and Roles in Adaptive Harvest Management

It’s August, and as the summer air begins to cool, visions of bluewings buzzing over shallow water begin to fill our thoughts. Daily, the excitement grows like a swelling raft of divers, and as our imaginations begin to picture the season ahead, we start to wonder just how good the real fall flight may be. Yes, if there is one thing on our mind this time of year, it’s duck numbers.

The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS), also known as "May Survey" or "BPOP," is closely monitored by duck hunters. This survey provides estimated breeding population sizes for most waterfowl species across North America and is recognized as the world's most comprehensive and accurate wildlife survey effort.

In addition to the May Survey, select U.S. states and the Canadian province of British Columbia conduct their own independent surveys every year. Although they do not receive as much attention, these surveys are critical in federal waterfowl management. They do not merely offer preliminary data; they directly inform the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) processes used to establish federal waterfowl season frameworks in the Pacific, Central, and Mississippi Flyways.

This article sheds a little light on these state surveys, including their results for 2024 and their larger role in AHM process.

**The only major state survey not included here is North Dakota, as it overlaps with the May Survey TSA. You can read about North Dakota’s results here.**

Western Mallards | Pacific Flyway Results

AHM protocols for our three westernmost flyways are scientifically informed by the population dynamics and status of two key mallard stocks—mid-continent mallards and western mallards.

Western mallards are defined as those breeding in select areas in the far northwest of the Traditional Survey Area (TSA), as well as those breeding in the states of California, Oregon, Washington, and the Canadian province of British Columbia. The health and status of these western mallards, understood by data included in these surveys, are crucial because the federal AHM framework in the Pacific Flyway is based exclusively on the population status of these birds. A significant percentage of each of these state’s annually harvested mallards also come from local breeders. Below are the state-by-state Pacific Flyway results for 2024. 

California

The California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey observed a decrease in the estimated total breeding duck population, down by an estimated 25% from 2023, with an average of 374,000 ducks, 30% below the long-term average (LTA).

"Despite another good water year, the lack of adequate nesting habitat, particularly in the Central Valley, continues to restrict waterfowl population growth in California," said CDFW Waterfowl Program Biologist Melanie Weaver.

Mallards were estimated at 178,000, reflecting a decrease of 12% from 2023 and 44% below the LTA. Gadwalls saw a decrease of approximately 39% from 2023, with an estimated 54,000, marking a decrease of 37% below the LTA.

Spring rains in March and April were at or slightly below normal, but the snowpack was above the LTA across all representative survey areas. Combined with full reservoirs, habitat conditions have continued to improve since the end of the last drought (2020–2023).

Read more about the California results here.

Washington

The Washington Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey shows the estimated duck population decreased by 22% from 2023, reaching an estimated 160,000, which is an 18% decrease from the LTA. Mallard populations decreased to 86,000, marking a 15% decrease from 2023 and 6% decrease from the LTA.

Additionally, the Canada goose (western) population increased to an estimated 35,000, an approximate 5% increase from 2023, but remains 8% below the LTA.

"Washington state, particularly the Columbia Basin, continues to experience long-term drought. Crews have reported wetland habitat conditions that range from similar to poorer compared to previous years. In eastern Washington, several semi-permanent water bodies have dried up completely, shifting production potential to higher river valleys and pothole regions. Early reports from banding crews indicate only marginal production so far," says Kyle Spragens, WDFW Waterfowl Section Manager.

Oregon

The Oregon Breeding Waterfowl Population Report shows that the state’s total breeding duck estimate increased to 303,000, up 53% from 2023 and approximately 14% above the LTA.

Mallards increased by a modest 4% from 2023, rising to approximately 71,000, but they remain 20% below the LTA. Gadwall numbers saw a rise to approximately 65,000, up 114% from 2023 and 21% above the LTA. Shovelers were the most abundant species on the survey, with an estimated 81,000 individuals.

"A significant driver of the increase in surveyed ducks this spring was the presence of large flocks of gadwall and shoveler, as well as other Boreal breeding species, many of which may not be nesting within the state. Unfortunately, no one can say with 100% confidence whether these large flocks of ducks will stay or leave, or what proportion will stay," said Dr. Dan Smith, waterfowl scientist in Ducks Unlimited’s Western Region.

Wetland conditions were generally favorable due to above-average winter precipitation, particularly in eastern Oregon. However, minimal rainfall in April led to a lack of sheet water and flooded ditches in western Oregon, particularly in the south Willamette Valley, negatively affecting local wetland conditions.

British Columbia

**Results will be announced and added towards the end of August.**

Mid-Continent Mallards | Great Lakes Results

Mallard data from Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota are combined with population and habitat data from the May Survey to create a comprehensive understanding of the mid-continent mallard (MCM) population. This data is used by the USFWS to inform the AHM process and resulting duck harvest frameworks for the Central and Mississippi Flyways. Below are the state-by-state Great Lakes results for 2024.

“State-level breeding waterfowl and habitat surveys not only inform the AHM process but also provide important trend data from which state-level waterfowl management decisions are developed”, said Dr. John Coluccy, director of Conservation Science and Planning for DU's Great Lakes/Atlantic Region.

Wisconsin

The Wisconsin Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey estimated the breeding duck population at 502,000, a 4% decrease from 2023 but 13% above the LTA.

Key species trends show mallards at approximately 147,000, down by 8% from 2023 and 18% below the LTA. Blue-winged teal were comparable at an estimated 104,000, up by 2% from 2023 and similar to their LTA. Wood ducks were estimated at 97,000, similar to 2023 and 13% above the LTA; and Canada geese were estimated at 153,000, down 4% from 2023 but 42% above the LTA.

“While the survey results are mixed, it's important to note that Wisconsin has received significant rainfall since the surveys were conducted. Although this rain may have come too late for some early nesters, it will improve opportunities for second nesting and brood survival, which might offer a better outlook for Wisconsin hunters this year,” said Brian Glenzinski, DU manager of Conservation Programs for the Great Lakes Initiative.

Michigan

The Michigan Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey, conducted from April 15 to May 10, estimated 674,000 ducks, a 394% increase from the 2023 record low and 12% above the LTA. Mallards were estimated at 251,000, up 203% from 2023 but 22% below the LTA.

The number of Canada geese was estimated at 281,000, a 29% increase from 2023 and 21% above the LTA.

The 2024 survey began on April 15 and ended on May 10, which is approximately one week earlier than previous survey years due to warmer spring temperatures and a subsequent earlier leaf out. This earlier start may have contributed to some migrating birds being counted in the survey. For example, this year saw a higher number of large groups of mallards (over 20 individuals) being counted compared to the previous two years.

Wetland conditions ranged from fair to excellent across the state's breeding regions. The 2024 statewide wetland abundance index was estimated at 469,000 wetlands, which was 2% higher than the 2023 estimate of 461,000 and 3% below the LTA of 485,000.

Minnesota

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey estimated the population for total ducks at 445,000, including scaup, which was 10% below 2023 and 34% below the LTA.

The estimate for mallards was 141,000, 37% lower than 2023 and 38% below the LTA. The blue-winged teal population was 160,000, 26% higher than the 2023 estimate and 23% below the LTA. The population of Canada geese was 106,000, 7% below last year’s estimate and 31% below the LTA.

According to the report, “With an earlier-than-normal ice-out throughout the state and dry conditions persisting through the ice-out period, settling conditions were likely poor and didn’t attract many breeding ducks to the landscape.”

Conditions were extremely dry across most of the state in early April, but extensive rains fell immediately prior to and during the survey; these numerous large rain events changed the landscape from very dry to very wet quite quickly. In early April 2024, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated that nearly the entire state had abnormally dry to severe drought conditions, but by late May, only about 12% of the state had any abnormally dry to drought designation.

"These surveys and the data they provide are crucial as the backbone of science-based waterfowl management, but for many hunters, they also offer an early glimpse of what the fall season might hold," says DU Senior Waterfowl Scientist Mike Brasher.

"This year’s state numbers present both challenges and reasons for optimism, but we’ll have a clearer picture later this month when the USFWS survey report is released. In the meantime, we extend our gratitude to our state and provincial partners for their unwavering commitment to the conservation and management of these incredible birds, which for over a century have united us in a cause greater than ourselves."

Media Contact:
Nathan Ratchford
Conservation Communications Coordinator
(570) 406-4925
nratchford@ducks.org