Migration Alert: Wild Weather Swings Impacts Duck and Goose Distribution in Central Flyway

In terms of the weather and waterfowl distribution, January has been full of surprises for hunters in the Central Flyway. When there is more snow on the ground in Houston, Texas, than there is in Bismarck, North Dakota, then you know the weather is doing some wacky things. That's exactly the situation heading toward the final week of January in many areas.  

North Dakota Game and Fish Department (NDGF) staff, along with partners in the US Fish and Wildlife Service, estimate that approximately 88,000 Canada geese and 3,225 mallards are using what open water remains in the state, primarily along the Missouri River. This number falls far below what was observed a year ago, when the annual midwinter waterfowl survey tallied over 300,000 Canada geese and more than 40,000 mallards in North Dakota. The difference? More ice and less open water, says John Palarski, NDGF migratory game bird biologist.

"Although we don't currently have much snow cover, cold temperatures in November and early January pushed many birds south and froze a considerable portion of the open water," Palarski says, adding that Lake Sakakawea, which in some years harbors thousands of wintering waterfowl, froze over on Jan. 4, just two days before the survey. In four of the last 10 years, the lower portion of Sakakawea still had substantial open water in early January and needed to be completely surveyed by air.

Canada goose numbers in western Nebraska appear to be on par with where they should be, reports veteran hunter and waterfowl photographer Doug Steinke, but mallard numbers are not. 

"The major roosts have ducks, though still below what I consider to be peak levels based on historical highs. It's the margins where you really notice the lack of birds," says Steinke. "Those fringe areas off the major roosts are just barren of mallards."

Survey numbers are not yet available from Kansas, but Tom Bidrowski, migratory game bird specialist with the Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks, believes that the figures will be down.

"We experienced a pretty significant cold snap just before the survey, which froze much of our open water, so I expect our numbers will reflect that change in habitat conditions," Bidrowski says.

In terms of a landing spot for mallards pushed out of Kansas and other areas by winter conditions, a video posted on Instagram by Tony Vandemore is getting a lot of attention.

The video shows massive groups of mallards floating on the Missouri River in central Missouri, dodging slush and ice floes, seemingly oblivious to the surrounding winter weather conditions and diminished access to food. The question from many hunters: Shouldn't those birds have migrated south?

Bidrowski again points to the role of open water, as well as a lack of hunting pressure.

"In my 30 years of flying waterfowl surveys, the places that I can count on finding ducks are those with the habitat, with open water, and also a lack of disturbance. I'm always amazed at how these birds, at one point scattered across a landscape, can find these areas of refuge," Bidrowski says. "And it's important to note, too, that at this point of the year, it's a gamble for a bird to move too far. They can hedge their bet, stick it out in an area that maybe doesn't have perfect water conditions and food conditions, in the hope that they can find enough food to get by until conditions improve."