Duck Populations, Habitat Conditions, Winter Weather, and Reports from the Field
Table of Contents
How did last season’s breeding habitat conditions and weather patterns shape waterfowl populations and your time in the blind? Ducks Unlimited’s 2024-2025 Season in Review breaks it all down.
Continue below for a summary of the reports highlights.
Summary: A 5% increase in breeding duck populations raised hope for a slowing of recent declines. Mallards increased by 8% but remained 16% below the long-term average. Spring came early in 2024, causing many ducks to migrate through the prairies when conditions were still dry, overflying to the Boreal Forest.
The 2024 Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey showed an estimated 5% increase in duck numbers from 2023, the first increase in nearly a decade, raising hope for a slowing of recent declines. Mallards increased by 8% but were 16% below the long-term average. Wigeon, green-winged teal, and scaup saw notable gains, while pintails and blue-winged teal declined. May pond counts increased 4% overall, but wetland conditions varied dramatically, increasing by 49% in the U.S. and dropping to a 20-year low in Canada. Spring came early in 2024, causing many ducks to migrate through the prairies when conditions were still dry, overflying to the Boreal Forest. Breeding habitat conditions varied elsewhere, with good to excellent conditions in the east and average conditions across western states. The combined effect of below average duck populations and variable habitat conditions set the stage for an average or slightly below average fall flight.
Summary: Record warmth from September to December delayed migration, keeping ducks farther north. A deep freeze in January triggered a late-season push, benefiting southern hunters. The Pacific Flyway saw mixed success, while the Atlantic Flyway improved in mid-season as wetland conditions rebounded.
The 2024–25 hunting season was characterized by record warmth, delayed migration, dry conditions, and a dramatic swing to record cold to close the season. September through December was among the warmest in 130 years, which kept ducks farther north across much of the central and eastern U.S. Mid- latitude hunters reported good success following a December freeze and subsequent thaw that kept birds around until January. Meanwhile, hunting prospects were grim in the southern U.S. until record-breaking cold triggered a significant migration and brought opportunities for excellent late-season hunting. The Pacific Flyway saw mixed success. Migration was delayed in many areas, but periodic weather systems shuffled birds and improved hunting success. In the Atlantic Flyway, warm and dry conditions early in the season made for challenging hunts, while wetland conditions improved by mid-season and January brought an influx of birds to the Mid- and South Atlantic.
Download the Season in Review PDF for more detailed information.
Summary: Avian Influenza outbreaks were reported in ring-necked ducks and multiple goose species. While mortality events in southern areas faded as winter progressed, outbreaks increased in northern states during February and March. Waterfowl biologists suggest that the virus has relatively small effects on overall populations.
For much of 2024, detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in wild birds were at their lowest levels since the outbreak began in 2022. For a brief period, the U.S. government was poised to rescind their import restrictions for wild game birds harvested in Canada. Yet days before the announcement was to occur, HPAI infections resurfaced in Canada, causing the restrictions to remain in place. Since then, HPAI has been detected in multiple waterfowl species across the U.S. Breakouts were observed in cackling geese in Oregon, ring-necked ducks in north Florida, and multiple goose species in the Central and Mississippi Flyways. Illness and mortality appear to primarily affect first-year birds, although some hunters reported a higher number of adult geese affected this year. While mortality events in southern areas faded as winter progressed, outbreaks increased in northern states during February and March. Waterfowl biologists continue to suggest that avian influenza has relatively small effects on waterfowl populations at a continental scale.
During 2024, the effects of HPAI were felt acutely by the dairy industry, infecting over 700 herds across 15 states. While cattle typically recover, infections reduce milk production, causing economic hardship and prompting nationwide milk testing. Poultry outbreaks surged in fall and winter, with significant effects on egg laying facilities and driving egg prices to record highs. Human cases of HPAI also increased, with over 65 documented and likely many more unreported. Most human cases were mild and came from direct contact with an infected animal, although the first ever human mortality in the U.S. was reported in Louisiana in early 2025. Genetic testing documented additional mutations in the virus, although transmission risk and virulence to humans remains low. Surveillance by partner agencies plays a crucial role in tracking the ongoing impact to wildlife, agriculture, and public health. Ducks Unlimited will continue our outreach to hunters on health risks and how we can help curb the spread.
**The following summaries provide a snapshot of the prevailing messages that DU hunters, biologists and partners heard throughout the 2024–25 season.
Summary: Hit-or-miss hunting due to erratic weather. Northern areas held ducks longer, while California saw delayed migrations and improved late-season hunting.
Waterfowl managers and hunters throughout the Pacific Flyway described the season as hit-or-miss, owing to the timing and intensity of multiple precipitation events and temperature swings. In Washington, mild fall temperatures and abundant water supported birds well into winter. Large numbers of ducks and geese remained on northern refuges throughout much of the season, particularly on Puget Sound’s tidal flats. Inland hunters struggled with widely dispersed and inactive flocks, with many reporting below- average success compared to previous years. Oregon experienced similar issues. January surveys by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife reported one of the lowest duck harvests in decades at Sauvie Island, one of the state’s most popular hunting areas. Eastern Oregon wetlands fared slightly better but remained below long-term averages, as warmer-than-normal conditions in British Columbia allowed many ducks to stay farther north, limiting migration into Oregon for much of the season.
California’s season was more dynamic. Early, warm weather delayed migrations into the Sacramento Valley, leaving many rice fields largely empty. By November, an atmospheric river brought significant rain to the Valley, drastically improving habitat but also deeply flooding some waterfowl areas and spreading birds across the landscape. The Grassland Ecological Area in the San Joaquin Valley provided some of the most consistent hunting, with green-winged teal dominating the harvest. Mendota Wildlife Area and Mystic Lake also held solid teal numbers, while flooded rice fields attracted large flocks of white-fronted, snow, and Ross’s geese. Across multiple areas, mallard numbers appeared higher than recent years, which was a welcome surprise given recent declines in breeding numbers.
Summary: Warm fall weather delayed movement, but a January freeze pushed birds south. The Mid-South struggled early, while Texas wetlands held record duck numbers by midwinter.
Early-season mild temperatures across the Prairie Pothole Region slowed the southward movement of birds, leading to a staggered migration. One of the biggest takeaways was the unprecedented warmth, as the 3-month period October–December was the warmest in 130 years. This extended warmth kept wetlands open far longer than usual, delaying migration and allowing birds to hold in mid-latitude regions instead of pushing south. Waterfowl season across the Great Lakes region was marked by inconsistent bird numbers and challenging conditions. An unusually warm fall delayed migrations, leading to slow early-season hunting in many areas. Mid-season hunting was erratic, with birds becoming stale in some locations, but a late cold front in December helped many hunters finish strong.
Bird numbers fluctuated across the Mid-South. Dry conditions persisted through September and October, but November brought needed rainfall to parts of the flyway. An arctic system in late November brought the first major freeze east of the Rockies, pushing birds out of Canada and freezing many wetlands. A rapid warm up reopened much of the landscape and improved hunting conditions in mid-latitude states with sustained success in areas such as Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Illinois.
A common complaint this season was the lack of mallards and wood ducks in flooded timber of Arkansas, Mississippi, and northern Louisiana. A poor acorn crop likely played a role, but the unseasonably warm fall kept many birds further north on open water. Mid-latitude states reported large concentrations of mallards on open rivers well into January, withstanding some of the coldest late-season temperatures experienced in decades. Nevertheless, record-breaking cold and multiple snow events created a dramatic turnaround for southern hunters, with some reporting “epic” hunts and consistent success over multiple weeks in January. In Texas, November rains significantly improved wetland conditions, particularly in the High Plains, where playa wetlands attracted over 1.2 million ducks by midwinter.
Summary: Warm early season weather slowed migration. Sea duck hunters found success by Thanksgiving, while a strong January cold front brought a major push of puddle ducks and geese.
Warm conditions also delayed migrations in the Atlantic Flyway, with inland wetlands remaining ice-free well into November. Sea duck hunters along the North Atlantic Coast reported success by Thanksgiving, with good numbers of scoters and eiders observed from Maine to Massachusetts. In the Chesapeake Bay region, hunting success varied throughout November and December.
The Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources reported dry conditions that limited habitat for dabbling ducks, though sea ducks and divers began to concentrate in the area as colder weather arrived. Maryland’s Eastern Shore saw a gradual buildup of Atlantic Population Canada geese, with surveys showing numbers nearing seasonal averages by late December. Further south, North Carolina and Virginia’s coastal marshes filled with redheads, bluebills, and mallards as colder weather pushed birds into the area in December. Managed wetlands in South Carolina and Georgia benefited from consistent rain, attracting mallards, gadwalls, and wood ducks by January.
The most significant migrations occurred in late January, driven by strong cold fronts. Aerial surveys and hunter reports in Maryland and Virginia noted increased puddle duck and goose numbers compared to December.
In South Carolina, the Department of Natural Resources reported a 25% increase in mallard numbers compared to their December survey, particularly in managed wetlands. Georgia also saw.
Most biologists expect the 2025 breeding population to be similar to last year. Presently, habitat conditions across major breeding areas are varied. Snow accumulation on the Canadian prairies has created a useful base of moisture, but scarce snow and low wetland levels prevail across the Dakotas. Additionally, soil moisture was low entering fall, meaning there is reduced opportunity for runoff into wetland basins for areas with snow.
Widespread spring and summer rain will be needed to improve conditions across the Prairie Pothole Region, which is now entering its eighth consecutive year without full drought recovery. Farther north, conditions have improved across portions of the Western Boreal Forest, which is welcome news after multiple years of drought and wildfires in this normally stable landscape. California lake levels are above average, and mountain snowpack is near or above seasonal averages in key watersheds, which bodes well for water availability for rice production and wetland management. Conditions appear good to excellent in eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., although drought is emerging across the Great Lakes. Birds are now well into northward migration, and weather events over the coming months will ultimately determine settling patterns, the habitats they encounter, and the production that will fuel yet another eagerly anticipated fall flight.
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