DU Special Report: 2024 Status of Waterfowl

By Mike Brasher, PhD; John Coluccy, PhD; Scott Stephens, PhD

Flock of American wigeon flying over a wetland. Photo by Jim Thompson

Waterfowl managers and hunters finally had something to cheer about, even if modestly, when the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released the highly anticipated 2024 Waterfowl Population Status report in late August. The report showed that total duck numbers in the traditional survey area increased by 5 percent above the 2023 estimate, marking the first documented increase in nine years. After the numbers hit record highs in the mid-2010s, multiple years of widespread prairie drought reduced available breeding habitat and drove duck population estimates steadily downward. Although drought persisted across the prairies in 2023, this year’s results suggest the decline may have slowed for most duck species, with several species showing increases over last year’s estimates.

“It appears some species had better production in 2023 than many expected, with carryover to spring of this year,” says DU Chief Scientist Dr. Steve Adair. “These results are encouraging, but they remind us of the importance of continuing to conserve habitats at a continental scale.”

In welcome news for waterfowlers, mallards were up 8 percent in the traditional survey area (encompassing portions of Alaska to western Ontario and south into the Dakotas and Montana). Despite the modest gain for mallards, the 2024 estimate of 6.6 million birds was the second-lowest in 30 years and remained below the long-term average for the third consecutive year. Three species posted significant population increases this spring: American wigeon (up 55 percent), American green-winged teal (up 20 percent), and scaup (up 16 percent).

2024 Duck Numbers Chart. Ducks Unlimited After a surprising increase last year, the 2024 estimate for northern pintails was down 11 percent to 1.98 million birds. Blue-winged teal, a species closely tied to the prairies, decreased 12 percent to 4.6 million birds—the first time this population has fallen below the long-term average in 20 years. Population estimates for all other individual species in the traditional survey area decreased, but to varying degrees. Meanwhile, species such as ring-necked ducks, goldeneyes, ruddy ducks, and buffleheads, although not reported individually, were included in the total duck population and contributed to this year’s increase.

Estimates of May ponds serve as an index of breeding habitat conditions in the Prairie Pothole Region, which is North America’s most important landscape for duck production. Survey results in 2024 revealed the positive effects of spring rains but also illustrated the region’s dynamic nature and the importance of delivering conservation at landscape levels. The total pond estimate for the US and Canadian prairies was up 4 percent from last year and similar to the long-term average, but conditions varied widely. The US pond count increased 49 percent from 2023, was 45 percent above the long-term average, and was the highest observed in 10 years.

In contrast, Canadian ponds declined 19 percent from last year’s estimate and were 24 percent below the long-term average, marking the lowest estimate in 20 years. Rain continued across the prairies after the survey concluded, improving wetland conditions in some areas, which was expected to benefit late nesters, renesting birds, and brood production for ducks that settled on these landscapes.

In the eastern survey area, which encompasses breeding habitats in eastern Canada and the northeastern United States, duck populations increased 12 percent from 2023 and were 20 percent above the long-term average. Reports from pilot-biologists suggested that habitat conditions were generally good across the region this spring, which bodes well for another year of stable duck production in the East.

Conducted annually since 1955 (except for a two-year hiatus during the COVID-19 pandemic), the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey is among the world’s most rigorous wildlife population surveys. This effort is led by staff with the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service, and state and provincial agencies. Estimates in the report reflect the status of duck populations during the breeding season and do not account for waterfowl production, which is influenced by spring and summer habitat conditions. The total number of birds in the fall flight, which includes both adult birds and newly fledged young, is of most relevance to hunters, as it represents the population of birds they will encounter in the field. Waterfowl populations and habitat conditions at the regional level are most likely to influence hunting success across the flyways, and they are summarized in the sections that follow.

Pacific Flyway

Mallards loafing in wetland with one drake coming in. Photo by Ed Wall Media

The success of duck hunters in the Pacific Flyway is closely tied to breeding populations in Alaska, British Columbia, Alberta, and local areas of Washington, Oregon, and California. Survey results from this spring give Pacific Flyway hunters some cause for optimism, as the combined estimate of breeding ducks across these regions increased 20 percent to 17.6 million birds, which was 5 percent above the long-term average. The total duck estimate for Alaska and Yukon Territory increased 28 percent—a welcome recovery following the 50 percent decline in last year’s survey. Additionally, this year’s duck populations in northern Alberta increased 35 percent, reflecting an overflight of early migrants through the prairies. Of particular note was an 87 percent increase in American wigeon numbers in Alaska and the Western Boreal Forest. This increase likely reflects the combined effects of more birds settling in northern regions and perhaps better timing of the survey relative to 2023. Similarly, the estimate for mallards in these regions increased 46 percent and was 36 percent above the long-term average.

Results from British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California were similar to last year, although trends varied among regions. Estimates for total breeding ducks in California and Washington decreased 24 percent, while in Oregon they were up 53 percent. Despite continued improvements in water availability and wetland conditions in California, the breeding mallard estimate in the state declined 12 percent and was 45 percent below the long-term average. “The continuing declines in breeding ducks in California is particularly concerning,” says Dr. Daniel Smith, waterfowl scientist for DU’s Western Region. “Although the cause for these declines remains a topic of investigation, we suspect land-use changes, which are reducing the availability of nesting habitat, are playing a key role.”

Habitat conditions across Alaska were described as good or excellent this spring, although late ice breakup in western portions of the state may have delayed breeding activity locally. Central and southern portions of the Western Boreal Forest experienced the driest winter in over 50 years, and pilot-biologists described habitat conditions in these survey regions as poor. Wetland conditions were better to the north and west, and production across this portion of the Boreal region is expected to be average or slightly below average. Breeding habitats in Washington were also poor compared to 2023, and initial reports suggest duck production was limited. In contrast, wetland conditions in Oregon were much improved due to above-average winter precipitation, particularly in the eastern part of the state. Another notable bright spot was the return of water to wetlands in the Klamath Basin along the California-Oregon border this spring. Duck production was excellent in this area, but receding water levels and warm temperatures resulted in a major botulism outbreak this summer. DU continues to work toward building durable, long-term water supplies for the Tule Lake and Lower Klamath National Wildlife Refuges to limit future outbreaks. Overall, waterfowlers in the Pacific Flyway should expect a mixed bag in terms of duck populations, the abundance of which will likely vary significantly by species and the area hunted.

Central and Mississippi Flyways

Pair of canvasbacks flying. Photo by GaryKramer.net

Most ducks encountered by Central and Mississippi Flyway waterfowlers originate in the Prairie Pothole Region, Western Boreal Forest, and Great Lakes region. Excluding estimates from Alaska and the Yukon Territories, which are a major source of birds for the Pacific Flyway, combined duck numbers from these regions were up 5 percent from the 2023 estimate. The most surprising change occurred for mallards, which increased 8 percent overall. The majority of the mallard increase occurred in the northern breeding areas of the Western Boreal Forest. Other species that nest primarily in the Boreal also increased this spring, including American wigeon, American green-winged teal, and scaup. The combined abundance of the five most common prairie-nesting dabbling ducks (mallards, northern pintails, blue-winged teal, northern shovelers, and gadwalls) was down 4 percent from 2023. Redhead and canvasback numbers declined by 16 and 8 percent, respectively, but despite several years of drought across their core breeding ranges, populations of both species remained near their long-term averages.

Habitat conditions and the timing of the spring migration exerted a strong influence on settling patterns of breeding ducks this spring. Drought across the US and Canadian prairies worsened during fall and winter of 2023–24. Rains that arrived this past April improved wetland conditions across the Dakotas, which was reflected by a 72 percent increase in May ponds from 2023. Rain continued into May and June, significantly improving wetland conditions across much of the US prairies, and pilot-biologists observed some of the best wetland conditions in more than a decade in parts of the region.

Late winter and spring were unusually warm across the midcontinent region, and early-nesting species such as mallards and pintails returned to the prairies before precipitation improved wetland conditions. Many of these birds continued their flight north, and estimates of total ducks across surveyed portions of the Western Boreal Forest were up 27 percent this spring. Meanwhile, total duck estimates for the combined US and Canadian prairies were down 10 percent from last year despite above-average wetland conditions in the Dakotas.

“This was a classic case of early migrants overflying the prairies when they were dry and settling farther north in the Boreal Forest,” notes Dr. Matt Dyson, a waterfowl research scientist with DU Canada. “Unfortunately, persistently dry conditions in portions of the Boreal Forest resulted in wildfires and reduced available habitat in some areas, but breeding ducks should have found suitable conditions elsewhere in this vast landscape.”

Past experience shows that when a larger proportion of ducks are distributed in areas north of the prairies, ratios of young to adult birds in the harvest are typically lower, indicating reduced production. As a result, duck production in the Mississippi and Central Flyways was likely average at best or below-average overall. However, some bright spots existed, as field biologists in the Dakotas observed what appeared to be strong production among late-nesting birds—notably mallards, gadwalls, and blue-winged teal—in areas with good habitat conditions.

Hunters in the Mississippi Flyway also benefit from duck populations that nest in the Great Lakes region. Estimates of total breeding ducks in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan were up 40 percent from 2023 estimates, although some of this increase may have been attributed to migrating birds that were still present when surveys were conducted. The overall estimate for breeding mallards in the Great Lakes region was up 8 percent from 2023, but trends differed among states. In Wisconsin and Minnesota, mallard numbers declined by 29 and 37 percent, respectively, while in Michigan, mallards were up 203 percent. Wetland conditions improved dramatically during spring across the Great Lakes region, boding well for local breeding ducks.

Atlantic Flyway

2024 Eastern Survey Results

Waterfowl breeding areas of particular importance to Atlantic Flyway hunters include the Great Lakes region, eastern Canada, and local habitats in the northeastern United States. Apart from mallards, all of the most abundant species surveyed in the eastern survey area were stable or increased compared to 2023 estimates. American black ducks continued their upward trend, increasing by 17 percent to a level that was 23 percent above the long-term average. Other species with notable increases included goldeneyes (up 42 percent), American green-winged teal (up 20 percent) and ring-necked ducks (up 9 percent). Mergansers were largely unchanged from 2023 and remained 23 percent above the long-term average.

The breeding population estimate for mallards, which includes birds surveyed in eastern Canada and northeastern states from Virginia to Maine, was 1.17 million birds, down 4 percent from the 2023 estimate and 9 percent below the long-term average. However, combined estimates of the nine most abundant species in the eastern survey area were up 12 percent from last year and 19 percent above the long-term average. The forested wetlands inhabited by wood ducks make surveying populations difficult using traditional methods. A model-based estimate using long-term datasets indicated that the breeding wood duck population in the Atlantic Flyway was approximately 900,000 birds, a 10 percent decrease from 2023 but similar to the long-term average.

Water levels and wetland conditions in Atlantic Canada were sufficient to provide suitable habitat for breeding waterfowl, and numerous Canada goose, mallard, and black duck broods were observed by DU field staff. Breeding habitat conditions in the eastern United States were also good to excellent, which should have benefited birds that were renesting or rearing broods. In general, duck production across much of eastern North America was expected to be average to good.

Goose Outlook

Flock of white-fronted geese flying. Photo by Michael Peters

Annual goose population estimates are calculated using data from aerial surveys and models that rely on band recovery and harvest estimates. In 2024, the status of North America’s goose populations was mixed. Greater snow goose numbers were up significantly compared to last year’s estimates, while cackling geese, midcontinent greater white-fronted geese, and emperor geese declined. No significant changes were noted for other goose populations and species. However, of the 21 populations that are monitored annually, eight showed significant negative trends during the most recent 10-year period, while 13 were stable. At current population levels, the number of young birds added to the fall flight, as well as regional habitat conditions, will likely have the greatest effect on hunter success this season.

Productivity for Arctic and subarctic goose populations is closely tied to the timing of the spring thaw and weather events that affect nesting and gosling survival. An early to average spring was reported on most goose breeding areas. In the Pacific Flyway, field reports from Alaska and Banks Island suggested that all species of geese and brant had good production. In the Central and Mississippi Flyways, excellent production of snow, cackling, and white-fronted geese was expected on Victoria Island. Breeding success in the central Arctic mainland was also expected to be good. Production of cackling, snow, and Ross’s geese was good on west Hudson Bay, Southampton Island, and James Bay. Canada geese in the Hudson Bay lowlands also had good breeding success. Reports from Baffin Island suggest poor production of snow and cackling geese but good production of Ross’s geese. In the Atlantic Flyway, field crews reported good breeding success among greater snow geese on Bylot Island.

Overall, indications from spring weather conditions and summer banding activities suggest that Arctic goose production was above average in 2024. Early reports from hunters appear to corroborate these reports, and goose hunters across North America have reason for optimism as we head into the peak of the hunting season.

Looking Ahead

Northern pintail drake landing in wetland. Photo by Phil Kahnke/Banded.com

It is easy to get lost in a detailed analysis of the results of annual waterfowl surveys. But these reports are more than numbers on a page or data that inform our understanding of waterfowl populations. They are the legacy of many passionate scientists, hunters, and other conservationists who have come before us. They represent the tenacity of those who dared to study a group of migratory birds at a continental scale, at times when resources were limited, technology was rudimentary, and methods unknown. Waterfowl are among the best-studied groups of animals on Earth. But our work is far from done. Our world is changing, and waterfowl are adapting in response. Ducks Unlimited is honored to work alongside our partners in maintaining investments in scientific research and annual population and habitat monitoring efforts. Without this information, our ability to understand these changes and adjust our conservation actions to support future populations of waterfowl will be lost.

After nearly a decade of annual declines in total duck populations, this year’s results provide reason for cautious optimism. “Mother Nature also began to do her part, bringing welcome rain back to portions of the prairies. But now is not the time to let off the gas for conservation,” says Adam Putnam, DU chief executive officer. “Our scientists remind us that waterfowl habitats across our continent continue to face challenges. History is clear that policies and programs that support our farmers, ranchers, and rural communities, while creating landscapes that produce ducks and promote healthy ecosystems, are vital for achieving our mission.”

As we spend time afield with friends and family this fall, let us reflect on our history and the dedication of those who led the way. Our commitment to the resource is not only about the waterfowl over our decoys today, but also the birds that will be there for those who follow us.

Dr. Mike Brasher is senior waterfowl scientist at DU national headquarters in Memphis, Dr. John Coluccy is director of conservation science and planning in DU’s Great Lakes/Atlantic Region, and Dr. Scott Stephens is DU’s senior director of prairie and boreal conservation strategy.

Liberal Frameworks Remain, but Notable Changes Likely on the Way

Hunter and retriever with harvested mallard. Photo by Tom Martineau/WildFrontImages.com

Results from the 2024 breeding waterfowl and habitat surveys will be used by federal and state agencies to set harvest regulations for the 2025–26 hunting season. According to initial reports, liberal duck season frameworks are likely to remain in place for all flyways, but important changes are expected for several species. Most notable is the likely opportunity for states to offer a three-pintail bag limit for the 2025–26 season, as recommended by a newly adopted interim pintail harvest strategy. Also, the early teal season for the Central, Mississippi, and Atlantic Flyways is likely to be reduced from 16 to nine days, as this year’s drop in blue-winged teal numbers triggered a more restrictive option.